As I have been execting, Kay Hagan is closing in on Elizabeth Dole in a new Survey USA poll.
In an election for United States Senator in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, 12 weeks till votes are counted, incumbent Republican US Senator Elizabeth Dole edges Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan 46% to 41%, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. But: Libertarian Christopher Cole gets 7% today, which, when combined with another 5% of voters who are undecided, makes the Senate race today fascinating to watch and difficult to handicap. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released four weeks ago, on 07/15/08, which did not include Cole by name, Hagan is flat, Dole is down. Cole gets 11% of male votes today, siphoning key votes Dole needs to win. Cole gets 12% of young votes today, siphoning key votes Hagan needs to win. Cole gets 9% of the white vote today, cutting Dole’s lead from 30+ points to 20 points. Though Dole holds 82% of the GOP base today, that’s down from 90% in July. 1 in 5 NC Independents today vote for Cole, which takes key votes away from both candidates. Dole is running for her second term in the United States Senate. Hagan is serving her fifth term in the North Carolina State Senate. Support for 3rd-Party candidates often collapses as Election Day nears, and that may or may not happen in North Carolina in 2008. Today, 12 weeks out, voters with a message they want to deliver to both Republicans and Democrats are using Cole as their protest vehicle.
This was taken before Kay launched her ads, which I expect to pull her even closer.
NC isn’t a lock but the DSCC is putting 8 million dollars into it and clearly will do anything for Kay.
I think we can win.
Certainly looks like there is still room for improvement with those voters.